From Ambition to Market Reality: Where Could India’s Green Hydrogen Opportunity Emerge?

India’s green hydrogen opportunity is moving into a more demanding phase. The National Green Hydrogen Mission targets at least 5 million tonnes per annum (MMTpa) of green hydrogen production by 2030 and positions India as a hub for production, use and exports. Yet the key market question is no longer simply how much capacity has been announced. It is whether projects will reach operation, whether industrial consumers will adopt green hydrogen at scale, and whether production economics and infrastructure can support bankable demand.

The latest ESIQ India Green Hydrogen Market Model takes a bottom-up approach to this question. It maps demand across ammonia, refining, steel, methanol, mobility, shipping and other/export applications, while separately tracking production projects, contracted offtake, infrastructure and export pipelines. The model uses Low, Base and High scenarios and keeps demand, nameplate capacity, probability-adjusted capacity and expected production as distinct concepts. This is important in a market where announced capacity can materially exceed projects that are ready to produce.

Market at a glance

Five takeaways for market participants

In the current working model, the Base case places India’s domestic green hydrogen demand at about 3.47 MMT in 2030, compared with 1.90 MMT in the Low case and 5.16 MMT in the High case. The model is deliberately more conservative on supply: gross nameplate production capacity reaches about 0.81 MMT H₂-equivalent by 2030, while probability-adjusted capacity is about 0.48 MMT and expected actual production about 0.31 MMT.

Figure 1. India green hydrogen demand outlook under Low, Base and High cases. Source: ESIQ Green Hydrogen Market Model v4.1.

Note: Model outputs are working estimates and are subject to iteration as project, demand and policy evidence improves. The 2021–2025 historical demand series is not treated as a comparable commercial market series because official green-hydrogen consumption data is limited.

The demand opportunity is concentrated in a few industrial sectors

The model’s 2030 Base case is dominated by established industrial hydrogen applications rather than mobility or other early-stage uses. Ammonia and refining together account for the overwhelming majority of modelled demand. This reflects the fact that these sectors already consume hydrogen and have clearer substitution pathways, whereas steel, methanol, shipping and mobility require new infrastructure, technology deployment or stronger economics before they can become large-scale demand centres.

Figure 2. Base-case sector composition of domestic green hydrogen demand in 2030. Source: ESIQ Green Hydrogen Market Model v4.1.

Within the model, ammonia contributes about 1.81 MMT and refining about 1.47 MMT of 2030 Base-case demand. Steel contributes approximately 0.17 MMT, while methanol is about 0.02 MMT. Mobility and shipping remain comparatively small in the current model and are treated as lower-confidence, lighter-touch demand estimates. This hierarchy is useful because it separates commercially anchored demand from applications where adoption is still developing.

The central question is execution, not announcements

The model highlights a potential supply-demand mismatch. In the Base case, total production requirement — including the identified contracted export volume — reaches roughly 3.54 MMT in 2030, versus probability-adjusted capacity of only 0.48 MMT and expected production of about 0.31 MMT. This produces a modelled 2030 capacity gap of approximately 3.06 MMT and a production gap of approximately 3.23 MMT.

Figure 3. Base-case production requirement versus probability-adjusted capacity and expected production. Source: ESIQ Green Hydrogen Market Model v4.1.

The implication is not that India will necessarily experience a physical hydrogen shortage. Rather, the model identifies the amount of additional capacity and project execution that would be required if the forecast demand materialises. It also shows why project databases need to distinguish commissioned projects, projects under construction, awarded projects and announced projects, instead of treating all announced capacity as equally probable.

The next phase of market development

Economics will remain decisive. The National Green Hydrogen Mission itself identifies electrolyser and renewable-energy costs as major components of green hydrogen production economics, alongside financing, water, storage, distribution, conversion to derivatives and enabling infrastructure. Lower-cost renewable electricity, improving electrolyser performance and scale, better financing structures and aggregation of demand can therefore materially change the adoption curve.

Policy support is already translating into procurement and production mechanisms. Government data published in March 2026 reported 862,000 tonnes per annum of green hydrogen production capacity awarded under the Mission’s incentive scheme, while green-ammonia price discovery had been completed for 724,000 tonnes per annum of supply to 13 fertiliser units. These developments strengthen the case for ammonia as an early anchor market, while refinery procurement, steel pilots, shipping hubs and export projects could broaden the demand base over time.

Three questions will determine the trajectory

The outlook is therefore likely to be uneven rather than linear. Ammonia and refinery applications could provide the first substantial demand base, while steel, methanol, shipping, mobility and export markets may scale at different speeds depending on economics, technology readiness and policy support. Scenario analysis is consequently more useful than a single-point forecast.

Answering the market questions behind the numbers

ESIQ’s Green Hydrogen & Derivatives Analytics / Outlook service is designed to answer the market questions behind the numbers: How large could the market become? Which sectors will drive demand? Which projects are likely to add supply? Will the market face a capacity surplus or deficit? What are the key cost and price drivers? How much conventional hydrogen could green hydrogen substitute? And where could investment opportunities emerge?

The service brings together historical and forecast capacity mapping, bottom-up sector demand modelling, Low/Base/High scenarios, project and production databases, contracted-offtake and export pipeline tracking, demand and policy drivers, restraints, cost and price analysis, sensitivity analysis and demand–supply gap assessment. The platform is also being enhanced with Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH) analysis, enabling a deeper connection between project economics, hydrogen costs and market adoption.

Most importantly, the methodology is designed to triangulate the market rather than rely on a single headline estimate. Independent top-down cross-checks, bottom-up sector modelling and external benchmarks are compared, while evidence quality and project execution probability are explicitly considered.

India’s green hydrogen opportunity is substantial, but the size of the opportunity should not be confused with the volume of capacity already capable of serving it. The next phase will be defined by the conversion of announcements into projects, projects into production, and production into competitive industrial demand. That makes transparent market sizing, project intelligence, scenario analysis and production economics increasingly important for developers, investors, technology providers, industrial buyers and policymakers.

To explore ESIQ’s India Green Hydrogen & Derivatives Analytics / Outlook service, start a conversation with our research team.

Research built for green-hydrogen decisions

ESIQ provides bespoke intelligence, market mapping, project tracking and voice-of-customer research for organisations navigating India’s green hydrogen landscape — whether as developers, investors, technology providers, industrial buyers or policymakers.